Spillover Effects among European,the US and Moroccan Stock Markets before and after the Global Financial Crisis

ABSTRACT

This paper assesses return and volatility spillovers among stock markets in Morocco, the US, UK, France and Germany represented respectively by MASI, S&P 500, FTSE 100, CAC 40 and DAX 30 indices, both before and after the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2008. The daily frequency data cover the period from January 2nd, 2002 to June 30th, 2016. Using the Diebold and Yilmaz approach, the results show varying financial connectedness between the Moroccan and the above mentioned developed stock markets. In fact, the significant increase of spillover index during the post-financial crisis period demonstrates that the US and European stock markets were the most affected. On the other hand, despite a relative increase of spillover effects coming from the US and German equity markets, our results show decline in the total net spillovers experienced by the Moroccan market after the recent financial crisis. These findings may provide some useful information to support decision-making and trading strategies for international investors.     

Return connectedness across asset classes around the COVID-19 outbreak

In this paper, we show evidence of a dramatic change in the structure and time-varying patterns of return connectedness across various assets (gold, crude oil, world equities, currencies, and bonds) around the COVID-19 outbreak. Using the TVP-VAR connectedness approach, the results show that the dynamic total connectedness across the five assets was moderate and quite stable until early 2020. After that, the total connectedness spikes and the structure of the network of connectedness alters, which concurs with the COVID-19 outbreak. The equity and USD indices are the primary transmitters of shocks before the outbreak, whereas the bond index becomes the main transmitters of shocks during the COVID-19 outbreak. However, the USD index is a net receiver of shocks to other assets during the outbreak period. Furthermore, using a recently developed newspaper-based index of uncertainty in financial markets due to infectious diseases to capture the recent impact of COVID-19, we find that connectedness is positively related to this index, and increases at higher levels (conditional quantiles) of connectedness. Overall, our results reflect the speedy disturbing effects of the COVID-19 outbreak, which matters to the formulations of policies seeking to achieve financial stability. The results also indicate a possibility to threaten investors’ portfolios and fade the benefits of diversification.     

Analysis of the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on G20 stock markets

We examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on G20 stock markets from multiple perspectives. To measure the impact of COVID-19 on cross-market linkages and deeply explore the dynamic evolution of risk transmission relations and paths among G20 stock markets, we statically and dynamically measure total, net, and pairwise volatility connectedness among G20 stock markets based on the DY approach by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 2014). The results indicate that the total volatility connectedness among G20 stock markets increases significantly during the COVID-19 crisis, moreover, the volatility connectedness display dynamic evolution characteristics during different periods of the COVID-19 pandemic. Besides, we also find that the developed markets are the main spillover transmitters while the emerging markets are the main spillover receivers. Furthermore, to capture the impact of COVID-19 on the volatility spillovers of G20 stock markets, we individually apply the spatial econometrics methods to analyze both the direct and indirect effects of COVID-19 on the stock markets’ volatility spillovers based on the “volatility spillover network matrix” innovatively constructed in this paper. The empirical results suggest that stock markets react more strongly to the COVID-19 confirmed cases and cured cases than the death cases. In general, our study offers some reference for both the investors and policymakers to understand the impact of COVID-19 on global stock markets.     

Who Influences the Asian–Pacific Real Estate Markets: The US,Japan or China?

As rapid economic growth in China has led to significant appreciation of urban real estate market values, this study examines China's influence on Asian–Pacific real estate markets by focusing on their respective market integration with the US, Japan and China during the period January 2005 to December 2017. Market integration is examined by unconditional and time‐varying conditional correlations, nonlinear Granger causality and dynamic connectedness effects. Overall, although the US and Japanese real estate markets have significantly influenced return and volatility in the regional markets, China has emerged as another major regional real estate volatility leader with rising influence over volatility integration, especially during the 2007–2011 crisis period. Financial crises have strengthened China's volatility connectedness effects and market integration with other Asian–Pacific real estate markets. Our results imply that the benefits of regional portfolio diversification may be declining as volatility integration across the Chinese and Asian–Pacific real estate markets becomes stronger. Therefore, diversified global investors should pay greater attention to these real estate markets.     

Abandoning distinctiveness: The influence of nostalgia on consumer choice

This study proposes that when feeling nostalgic, consumers are more likely to choose the option that the majority of others prefer. Four studies consistently demonstrate that nostalgia can enhance consumers' social connectedness, which motivates them to maintain the feelings of connection to the group and thereby increases their preference for majority-endorsed options in the subsequent product choices. Moreover, the strength of social ties between consumers and others moderates the mediation effect of social connectedness. In the weak social ties condition, social connectedness mediates the effect of nostalgia on preference for majority-endorsed products. In the strong social ties condition, the mediation effect of social connectedness diminishes. These findings complement previous work on how nostalgia influences consumer behavior.     

Market quality and the connectedness of steel rebar and other industrial metal futures in China

We examine the market quality of China's steel rebar futures, along with three other important industrial metal futures. Steel rebar futures are the most active metal futures contracts in China. Our analyses show that while steel rebar and copper futures are comparable in terms of informational efficiency, they are more informationally efficient than iron ore and aluminum futures, with low bid–ask spread, volatility persistence, pricing error variance, and probability of informed trading. We find a bidirectional connection between iron ore and steel rebar futures. Furthermore, we show that these metal futures are weakly related to the Chinese stock market.     

Housing market volatility connectedness among G7 countries

This study investigates international linkages among housing markets in the G7 countries, using the connectedness methodology developed in Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 2015). We find that volatility connectedness varies over the business cycle, with a surge during the global financial crisis. We also show that the United States and Italy were major net transmitters of housing market volatility shocks to other countries during the global financial crisis and the European debt crisis, respectively.     

The impact of appointment-based CEO connectedness on firms’ performance and profitability

This paper investigates whether the performance variables of newly added intangible capital elements give the appointment relationship a deeper impact on the firms’ performance and profitability. We document that after correcting for endogeneity, when considering intangible capital, Total Q is a better proxy than Tobin’s Q for explaining the effect of appointment-based CEO connectedness on firm performance and profitability. Furthermore, we show that the influence of directors on company performance and profitability is more important than that of executives or managers. We also find that the stronger the appointment relationship, the worse the company’s performance and profitability. We further provide a series of alternative interpretations and robustness test evidence showing that intangible capital is more important for high technology and internet firms than industrial firms. Further, we find that the greater the number of executives appointed by the CEO, the better the firm’s research and development, but the worse the firm’s investment policy.     

The Impact of CEO Characteristics on the Internationalization of SMEs: Evidence from the UK

This study analyses the role of chief executive officers (CEOs) in the internationalization of small‐ and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs). Specifically, it examines the impact of CEOs' demographic characteristics on the internationalization of SMEs. Based on upper echelons theory, resource‐based view and information processing theory, it is hypothesized that CEO characteristics like age, education, tenure, and political connectedness affect SMEs' international performance. Using the panel data analysis of 283 UK SMEs for the period of 2005 to 2015, this study provides evidence that CEOs' political connections and educational level are positively related to firm internationalization, while age negatively influences firm internationalization. Tenure is found to have a curvilinear relationship with SMEs' internationalization. Copyright © 2018 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Unbounded Rationality

The paper discusses bounded and unbounded rationality in purposeful complex adaptive systems (PCAS) modeled by the Evolutionary Systems Design (ESD) framework. Due to Herbert Simon, bounded rationality is the rationality of cognition. Unbounded rationality is the generalized rationality of connectedness represented mathematically, of spirituality, and of right decision/negotiation. Operational procedures for defining/solving and validating a problem in group decision and negotiation under unbounded rationality are discussed. With human PCAS as a focus, the paper more generally considers rationality in multiagent systems with natural and/or artificial agents.